Bankinter | Fitch maintains Spain’s rating at A- and the outlook “Stable”, given the resilience of the economy and the improvement in the labour market. Fitch estimates GDP growth of 2.1% and 2.0% for 2024 and 2025 respectively. Moreover, the credit rating agency points to the need to address the high structural unemployment rate.
No surprises for our analysts: “Fitch maintains its credit rating one notch below S&P’s equivalent at A stable and one notch above Moody’s equivalent at Baa1 in mid-March, although it raised its outlook to positive from stable”.
On the other hand, Moody’s maintains the rating and outlook of the Portuguese Republic at A3 “Stable”.
Analysis: Good news for the Portuguese economy, which maintains its A rating from the main rating agencies. As expected, Moody’s maintains Portugal’s debt rating, following the upgrade in November 2023. It continues to see the economy pointing to a good performance and expects GDP growth of +1.8% in 2024 and +1.9% in 2025 (versus 1.7% and +1.8% in our estimates). However, Moody’s refers to the domestic political environment as the main source of uncertainty, as it considers the risks of early elections to be elevated.
