UBS Debt to GDP Euro area

Peripheral Europe’s bond rally might soon come to an end

MADRID | The Corner | Peripheral equities and bonds have been strongly favored by Draghi’s speech last Friday at Jackson Hole with intense improvements in sovereign credits from Portugal, Spain and Italy, which have reached record lows. In particular, Spain’s 10-year bonds yields are at 2.12% under the 2.38% of comparable U.S. Treasuries and especially today the Spanish Treasury has reduced sharply the interest rates of three- and nine-months bills in an auction of € 3,500 million at historical lows, without entering in negative territory like on the secondary market. Nevertheless, UBS strategists are starting to change their bullish view on peripheral Europe basing on market and fundamental arguments.


Portugal rescues BES with €4.9bn coming from Troika’s bail-out

BERLIN | Alberto Lozano | The Portuguese government splits BES into two banks. On the one hand, it will inject €4.9 billion of capital in a new company called “Novo Banco”, which will get all the assets and employees from the crisis-hit bank. On the other hand, all toxic assets mostly related to its exposure to the Espirito Santo family will stay in the current Espirito Santo’s “bad bank”.

No Picture

Morgan Stanley: “Portugal is now a good buying opportunity”

MADRID | By The Corner | Experts at Morgan Stanley consider that Portugal is now a good opportunity due to its current technical levels. Since the Espirito Santo incident, the PSI20 has plummeted by 17.5%, but these analysts see a potential technical recovery of 10-12%. The Portuguese treasury has covered its entire financing needs for 2014 and is now raising funds for 2015.

espirito santo

Espirito Santo: Flight to quality

MADRID | By J.P. Marín Arrese | The troubles faced by Banco Espirito Santo ’s main share holding group have delivered a widespread blow to financials and periphery sovereigns. A nasty reminder that Eurozone doesn’t seem so stable as everyone bet it was. Investors are flying to safety, pushing the US Treasuries and German bunds close to past records. Stock exchanges and market sentiment are bound to undertake brisk U turns, at no warning. The more so as sharp and continued rises always offer a good excuse for a sell-off. There is nothing to worry about.

No Picture

Portugal: Lisbon resilient, yields calmed, citizens exhausted

MADRID | OP-ED by Fernando Barciela | Laconic and without any fuss, PM Pedro Passos Coelho announced that three years after the €78 billion bailout Portugal will stand on its feet without the European Troika. His  pledge aimed to get political momentum at the upcoming European elections, although it greatly stirred public anger. The rate on 10-year securities slid two basis points to 3.61 percent, from a record 18.29 percent in January 2012, according to Bloomberg data. Investors betting on Portuguese bonds have seen a 15 percent return this year through May 2.

Portugal Draft 2014 Budget

Portugal: Potential fiscal slippage this year likely to set the bar higher for next

LONDON | By BARCLAYS | The Portuguese government presented yesterday the draft Budget Law for 2014. Fiscal measures to be deployed amount to EUR3.9bn (2.4% of GDP), about 0.4% of GDP above the EUR3.3bn announced in May when the cabinet approved additional austerity measures to meet revised fiscal targets for this year and next (EUR1.4bn in 2013 and EUR3.3bn in 2014).

the troika saves1

The troika saves us from ourselves

LISBON | By Helena Matos via PresseuropThe International Monetary Fund, European Commission and European Central Bank are back in Lisbon to evaluate the results of the 2011 bailout plan. This is good because otherwise Portugal would make the same mistakes that led to the crisis in the first place.