Banc Sabadell| The new motorway tax in France, whose impact would be ~-€85m on Abertis (~2% of its EBITDA 2023e; ACS’ 45% stake in Abertis net of minority interests), could have an impact on a future review of Abertis’ rating unless corrective measures such as a dividend cut are taken, following comments by S&P in a recent report, according to press reports.
In this regard, Abertis plans to pay out €600m in dividends this year (~€300m for ACS; ~20% of ACS’ operating cash flow before working capital and CAPEX) which, in the event of a cut of the same magnitude as the tax, would be reduced by -14% (-2.8% of ACS’ lower operating cash flow before working capital and CAPEX).
Assessment: Negative news but with a limited impact insofar as the impact of the tax was already known and does not necessarily imply a cut in the dividend, especially when there is the possibility of a strong cash inflow as a result of the decision to be taken by the Supreme Court on the settlement of the AP-7 (up to €3,200 M net of taxes) in the near future.
