Renta 4: According to press reports, the private-equity fund Trilantic could be negotiating with Stadler the launch of a counter takeover bid on Talgo after the possible rejection of the takeover bid of Magyar Vagon by the government.
Assessment: The news could be considered to be positive because it may open a door to the success of a takeover bid for Talgo, but it may be difficult for it to come to fruition, as it would be complicated if, after the Spanish government’s repeated comments on Talgo’s strategic nature, it were not even more so with a company from outside the European Union.
On the other hand, if Stadler were to finally give the go-ahead to this operation, it is possible that CAF could reconsider the operation, bearing in mind that Stadler is a direct competitor of CAF, which is of a similar size. As has already been commented on several occasions, the fit between Talgo and Stadler is good, as the latter does not have a strong position in high-speed trains but is significantly increasing its presence in Spain.
The recommendation to go for the takeover bid is reiterated, but the possibility of a counter-bid after this news is also awaited.
