Eurozone final CPI could be revised slightly upwards to 8.6% with underlying at 5.2%

inflacion CM

Renta 4 : European stock markets open slightly higher (Eurostoxx futures +0.3%, S&P futures +0.4%), supported by Nvidia which raises its guidance (IA) and boosts Nasdaq futures (+0.8%).

On the macro front, the focus of the session will be on the eurozone January final CPI, which could be revised slightly higher to +8.6% overall (vs +8.5% preliminary and +9.2% previously), with core CPI stable at yearly highs +5.2%. This maintenance of elevated inflationary pressures (vs. target 2%) is combined with improving leading cycle indicators (IFO, ZEW, PMIs), supported by improvements in bottlenecks in production chains, mild weather, and fiscal support, even if IFO economists do not rule out a mild recession in Germany (the current situation component continues to worsen, and the impact of tighter financial conditions has yet to be fully felt). Still, the improvement in the expectations component reinforces the case for further ECB hikes, with the market already putting the target level at 3.7%.

In the US, beyond the first revision of 2Q22 GDP (unchanged vs. preliminary data, +2.9%e), the investor focus today will be on weekly unemployment to see if there are signs of moderation in US job creation, as an overly tight labour market continues to be the Fed’s main concern. In this sense, yesterday the Fed Minutes of February 1 were published, in which it can be seen that most members opted for a +25 bp hike, although some defended the need for +50 bp, an option that could gain ground after the strength of the latest activity data (employment, consumption) and the slowdown in the disinflationary process (producer prices, CPI), as Bullard or Mester are defending. The market discounts +30 bp for the March 22 meeting and two more hikes of +25 bp to 5.25-5.5%.

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