IMF forecasts back soft landing and point to Spain as eurozone leader

IMF outlook

BancaMarch: International Monetary Fund forecasts support a soft landing. Global economic growth estimates for 2024 have been revised upwards by two tenths of a percentage point, maintaining the same levels as in 2023, +3.1%. This is due to the improved outlook for the United States and China, the world’s two largest economies.

In the case of the United States, the variation in GDP falls from +2.5% in 2023 to +2.1% in 2024 as a consequence of the lagged effects of the tight monetary policy, although the estimate for this year is 0.6 p.p. higher than before. In China, growth will also be lower in 2024 (from +5.2% in 2023 to 4.6%) but revised 0.4 p.p. higher.

It is worth mentioning other emerging countries, such as India, which maintains its strong growth of +6.5%, reflecting the resilience of domestic demand. The eurozone and its main economies will show a small recovery due to strong household consumption and contained inflation. Growth for the eurozone as a whole will be +0.9% in 2024 (vs. +0.5% in 2023), France +1% (vs. +0.8%), Italy +0.7% (vs. +0.7%) and Germany +0.5% (-0.3%), the latter moving out of contractionary territory.

Spain will remain the growth leader among the main economies of the monetary union, although its growth will be reduced from +2.4% in 2023 to +1.5% in 2024, two tenths of a percentage point lower than forecast in October.

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