Price of carbon allowances in EU could fall by 11-36% after 900% revaluation


Morgan Stanley| Analysts have revised their European Union (EUA) carbon allowance price estimates downwards, after a 900% rally from 2018, and see little appeal at €80/tonne as the energy crisis has accelerated emissions reductions, pushing the team’s 2030 emissions estimates to be -14% below the 2019 pre-crisis outlook.They also expect the CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) to undergo a softer start to implementation or even a delay. The team estimates EUAs price will fall between 11-36% (see more details in the table).

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