Spanish external sector under the spotlight

For 2Q market watchers expect a GDP increase over 0.4%, with a better composition than in the previous quarter. After all, both the private consumption and the gross capital formation have accelerated thus compensating the public consumption stabilization. Nonetheless, the net external demand is expected to drain growth from the GDP (0.3 quarterly points).

The recovery of the national demand includes the worsening of the external accounts. The origin is in the trade in goods, where exports have plummeted every time the imports have improved, thus deteriorating the trade deficit. Despite the surplus in services widen thanks to the excellent touristic season, the current account surplus was reduced during the 1Q14.

Experts expect current account surplus to fall even further, although exports might go back to positive numbers in the coming months. However, it will be necessary to monitor the progress of the import of goods (because its growth is too much fast with regard to the national demand).

About the Author

Carlos Díaz Guell
Editor at and, Carlos began his career in financial journalism as founding member of El País. He's been communications director of Bank of Spain, member of the ECC at the European Central Bank, Institutional Relations director at Iberia and editor at La Economía 16 magazine.

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