Bankinter | The ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey came in worse than expected in March, reaching its lowest level since April 2025. Expectations fell to negative 0.5 points (compared to the expected 39.2 and the previous 58.3), whilst the Current Situation improved to negative 62.9 (compared to negative 68.0 and the previous 65.9).
Bankinter analysis team’s view: Negative reading. The survey, which polls around 350 analysts and investors on expectations and the current state of the country’s economic activity, fell much more than expected in March. This reflects the energy impact stemming from the US-Iran conflict. It marks the lowest level since April 2025 (Liberation Day).
In our view, the energy shock caused by the conflict should be more temporary than structural. Therefore, we do not believe that the temporary spike in energy prices will alter the central banks’ roadmap. Against this backdrop, we continue to forecast that the ECB will keep rates at current levels: 2.00%/2.15% (Deposit/Lending), whilst the market is pricing in approximately two rate rises in 2026.
