Bankinter | The ZEW economic sentiment survey showed positive data in January. Expectations rebounded more than expected to 59.6 from 45.8 previously versus 50.0 expected, while the current situation accelerated to: -72.7 versus -76.0 expected and -81.0 previously.
Bankinter analysis team’s view: Positive data. Among the sectors that drove the improvement in expectations were the metal industry, the pharmaceutical industry and automobiles. However, the sectors that slowed down, albeit more moderately, were utilities and telecoms.
Despite competition from China and the major challenge posed by US tariffs, now exacerbated by the possibility of additional levies on countries that defend Greenland, export-oriented industries are experiencing significant improvements.
Germany could gain traction in 2026, marking a turning point and thus materialising the fiscal stimulus announced in 2025. With the upturn in expectations, favoured by greater clarity on the trade front, controlled inflation (1.8%) and the implementation of the fiscal stimulus announced in May, the US economy could be boosted. All this reinforces the idea that the ECB will keep its monetary policy stable (2.00%/2.15%) at its next meeting.
