Bankinter : Preliminary December CPI +6.7% YoY rises strongly from 5.5% previously and well above the 5.6% expected. The underlying rate stands at 2.1% YoY in December (preliminary) from 1.7% previously. According to the INE, the advanced figure for December would be the highest CPI rate since March 1992. Of note in this behaviour is the rise in the price of electricity, higher this month than in December 2020. Also influential, albeit to a lesser extent, is the increase in food prices, compared with the decline recorded last year.
Meanwhile, the estimated annual rate of change of core inflation (general index without unprocessed food and energy products) increases by four tenths of a point to 2.1%, which is almost five points below that of the general CPI.
The analysis team’s opinion: Bad news. The figure is well above our estimates (5.7%). Looking ahead to 2022, we expect inflation to moderate, especially in the second half of the year, to close at levels of around 2%.
