BBVA’s combined NII could grow 8-10% CAGR in next 3 years: Overweight, T.P. 7,30 eur/share

BBVABBVA's combined NII could grow 8-10% CAGR in 3 years

Morgan Stanley | After putting behind it the acquisition of Garanti (it now controls 86%), we believe BBVA’s focus will gradually return to its businesses in Mexico and Spain. These contribute to 90% of the 2022-2024 profits and where the sensitivity to rates has been underestimated. Based on our analysis, the combined NII will be able to grow 8-10% CAGR in the next three years, beating the consensus assumption. A 0.7x TBV for a ROTE of 11-12%. We reiterate our Overweight stance, with Target Price of 7,30 euros/share.

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