Bankinter | Three pieces of positive macro data on the Spanish economy: GDP grew in the first quarter of 2019 by +2.4% yoy compared to the +2.3% expected and +2.3% in the previous quarter. In inter-quarterly rate accelerated unexpectedly to +0.7% from +0.6% in Q42018. Both are double that of the Eurozone and the 28.
The CPI for April increased +1.5% yoy compared to the +1.5% expected and +1.3% in March.
Lastly, retail sales in March grew +1.7% compared to the +1.4% expected and +1.4% in the previous month (revised upwards from the initial +1.2%.
These three figures are better than expected for Spain´s economic cycle. But, in a first evaluation, we think that the GDP data are less good than they appear because private consumption slowed from +2% in Q418 to +1.5% in Q119, with the external sector responsible for greater dynamism. But this interpretation is questionable, as both exports (-0.5% compared to +1.7% in Q4) and imports (-1.2% compared to +1.7% in Q4) fell back. The picture is less good tan it appears, in a first approximation.
