Lower consumer growth weighs on Spanish GDP growth in Q119

How much are Spaniards going to spend next year?The recovery in consumption has gone beyond what the improvement in household incomes would suggest

Bankinter | Three pieces of positive macro data on the Spanish economy:  GDP grew in the first quarter of 2019 by +2.4% yoy compared to the +2.3% expected and +2.3% in the previous quarter. In inter-quarterly rate accelerated unexpectedly to +0.7% from +0.6% in Q42018. Both are double that of the Eurozone and the 28.

The CPI for April increased +1.5% yoy compared to the +1.5% expected and +1.3% in March.

Lastly, retail sales in March grew +1.7% compared to the +1.4% expected and +1.4% in the previous month (revised upwards from the initial +1.2%.

These three figures are better than expected for Spain´s economic cycle. But, in a first evaluation, we think that the GDP data are less good than they appear because private consumption slowed from +2% in Q418 to +1.5% in Q119, with the external sector responsible for greater dynamism. But this interpretation is questionable, as both exports (-0.5% compared to +1.7% in Q4) and imports (-1.2% compared to +1.7% in Q4) fell back. The picture is less good tan it appears, in a first approximation.



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