Renta 4 | Consultancy STR and Cushman & Wakefield have carried out a study on the hotel sector in Spain, comparing estimates for 2021e with the figures for 2019.
Revenue per room (RevPar) in 2021e will be around 43% of the 2019 level, mainly due to the decline in occupancy (-43,4 pp vs 2019 to 36%) as prices would remain around 2019 levels.
At Renta 4 Banco we expect less of a drop in RevPar at Meliá, which would be at 67% of its 2019 level, in a large part due to the better performance in terms of occupancy, which would fall 24 pp to 49%.
Valuation: We believe the improved performance of RevPar at Melia compared with the example of Spanish hotels given by STR and Cushman & Wakefield is down to the fact the former has a bigger holiday component. And this is doing better than the urban segment.
We are not expecting any impact on the share price. HOLD, TP 6,8 euros.