Bankinter | The agency points to the resilience of the economy and public support in the pandemic. In the short term, it warns that the risk of “rising inflationary pressures and economic slowdown” prevail in an environment of high uncertainty.
Moody’s projections for the Spanish economy are GDP +3.5% in 2022e, +1.6% in 2023e and +2% in 2024e. Average inflation of 8% in 2022e, +3.4% in 2023e and 2% in 2024e. Regarding the public deficit, it estimates +5.3% of GDP in 2022e, +4.7% in 2023e and +4.3% in 2024e.
Opinion of Bankinter’s analysis team:
Moody’s has kept its credit rating unchanged since April 2018. Its projections are weaker than those published by the EC last week (which maintained +4% YoY for 2022 and revised down 2023 to +2.1%); although similar in terms of inflation (+8.1% YoY for 2022 and +3.4% YoY for 2023e).
Our GDP projections for 2022e (+4.0%) and 2023e (+2.6%) will continue to be led by Investment expectations, driven by the implementation of European funds, as well as the recovery in Tourism. However, risks remain broadly tilted to the downside, mainly until inflation is contained and monetary normalisation progresses. Not to mention the duration and effects of the war in Ukraine.