Bankinter | Moody’s has maintained its US debt rating, but worsened the outlook. The credit rating agency maintains the rating at AAA, but changes the outlook to “negative” from “stable”. In its report Moody’s refers to the worsening fiscal situation and the polarisation of politics as long-term concerns for the US economy. Assessment: Rising interest rates, the sharp increase in public debt and a polarised Congress that is unable to…
Santander Corporate & Investment| Moody’s published on Thursday its monthly report where it announced that there were 16 defaults in May, matching the March figure which represented a monthly record since December 2020. This brings the balance for the first five months of the year to 62 defaults, with North America leading the way (42, more than double the 16 in the same period of 2022), followed by Europe (11),…
Bankinter | The agency points to the resilience of the economy and public support in the pandemic. In the short term, it warns that the risk of “rising inflationary pressures and economic slowdown” prevail in an environment of high uncertainty. Moody’s projections for the Spanish economy are GDP +3.5% in 2022e, +1.6% in 2023e and +2% in 2024e. Average inflation of 8% in 2022e, +3.4% in 2023e and 2% in…
Moody’s points out that Spanish public debt is at maximum levels for a century. Thus, it will take into account in its next rating reviews whether the Spanish government presents a credible plan to reverse the fiscal deterioration aggravated by Covid-19. A downgrade of the current rating (Baa1 with a stable outlook) could lead to the downgrade of more than 50% of Spain’s companies’ in 18 months. Even so, this warning is not exclusive to Spain (public debt/GDP 120%), as there are other countries with high debt problems (Italy 158%, Greece 200%, Portugal 137%).
Rating agency S&P has changed Spain’s rating outlook to “negative” due to the pandemic. While maintaining the country rating at “A,” the agency warns of the coronavirus’ strong impact on Spain’s economy. For this reason it has worsened its perspectives from “stable” to “negative.” S&P also justifies its decision on the possibility that an agreement will not be reached over next year’s budget.
Moody’s has warned that over half of Spain’s non-financial companies rated by the credit agency are at risk of being downgraded in the next 18 months. This is in light of the prospect that their solvency will continue to weaken, even after the government relaxes restrictions on mobility and travel and eases social distancing. In fact, the ratings agency highlights that between March and May 2020, it took 29 negative actions on the ratings of Spanish non-financial companies.
S&P has revised Spain 2020 GDP downwards from +1.5% to -1.8%, rebounding +3.1% in 2021, +1.4% in 2022 and +1.5% in 2023. Meanwhile, estimates for the unemployment rate are 14.6% in 2020 compared to 14.1% in 2019, 15.6% in 2021, 15.2% in 2022 and 15.0% in 2023. For its part, Moody’s does not expand on this information; it merely confirms its ratings and outlook.
S&P has reduced its estimate of GDP for the euro area by 5 tenths in 2019 from +1.6% in November to +1.1%. In 2020 it forecasts a growth of +1.4% (vs. +1.6% previous), +1.4% also in 2021 (vs +1.5% previous) and +1.3% in 2022.
The European leveraged financial markets have an increasing attraction for investors seeking more risk. According to data from Moody’s, the new volumes of issuance of European Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs), one of the main sources of demand for leveraged loans, stand at 6.4 billion euros in the year to date. At this rate, it will exceed the annual figure for 2017 of 18.8 billion euros, which was the highest in the last 10 years.
On Friday, S&P raised its rating on the main Spanish banks by one notch. The decision came in the wake of the rating upgrde by the same agency for Spain’s public debt on March 23, so its “a logical move,” according to Renta4.