S&P has revised Spain 2020 GDP downwards from +1.5% to -1.8%, rebounding +3.1% in 2021, +1.4% in 2022 and +1.5% in 2023. Meanwhile, estimates for the unemployment rate are 14.6% in 2020 compared to 14.1% in 2019, 15.6% in 2021, 15.2% in 2022 and 15.0% in 2023.
Whatsmore, S&P’s projections for the Fiscal Deficit/Debt to GDP show the following figures: -4.9%/91.6% in 2020 and 2.5%/90.2% in 2021 (no estimates for 2022/23).
In S&P’s central scenario, the COVID-19 “will not inflict permanent damage on Spain’s credit parameters.” It added that “the COVID-19 imposes a 1-year shock on growth and budgetary performance.” They identify 3 main risks: the public debt dimension, the ageing population and the duality of the labour market.
For its part, Moody’s does not expand on this information; it merely confirms its ratings and outlook.
In the opinion of Bankinter’s analysts, “this outcome is at heart somewhat positive, given that the risk of a downward revision of either of the two ratings and/or, above all, the outlook, was not zero.”
“The basic approach to S&P’s revised macro estimates is not negative. Although the downward revision of GDP’20 to -1.8% seems to us to be somewhat excessive, the revision of the jobless rate does not.”