Bankinter | Lebrikizumab is a new treatment being developed for atopical dermatitis licensed by Eli Lilly to Almirall (ALM). In the third study in Phase III, it has shown to have had a significant improvement on the skin, relieving itching for people with this ailment when combined with topical corticosteroids.
The study has met all the primary valuation criteria and the principal secondary ones, and has a security profile consistent with previous studies. In 2022, requests for commercialisation on a global scale will be presented. Almirall have exclusivity on the sale of Lebrikizumab in Europe, while Eli Lilly has the rights for the US and the other countries.
Bankinter analysis team’s view:
This is positive and very important news for Almirall. Lebrikizumab is one of the pharmaceuticals which is going to drive sales in the coming years. We estimate it could account for 13% of sales in 2025. The company is estimating a sales peak for Lebrikizumab in Europe of 450 million euros. We predict it will reach 80% of this potential in 2028e. We expect sales to begin in mid-2023. But the news indicates that definitive approval could come through in 2022 and that sales would start earlier than expected. Our valuation of Lebrikizumab is 2,65 euros/share in our target price for Almirall of 14,85 euros/share (BUY stance).