Bankinter | Still nobody, or almost nobody, is talking about the consequences for the property sector of the new context we are facing. But it would be a good idea to do start doing just that. After a 2022 where housing prices are still going up (an estimated +5%), there should be a phase of adjustment. We are forecasting falls of 3% in 2023e and 2% in 2024e (vs +1% and 0% previously estimated).
Above all we see declines in residential (housing) prices, because they directly and significantly influence Private Consumption. The gist is that after two excellent years, prices will decrease in varying degrees in the principal economies, with the US perhaps being one of the few exceptions.
But Spain will not be one of them. The adjustment here will not be a severe one, but it will be a change in trend which we should keep in mind.