Risk of larger provisions will be offset by the increase in rates and margins; Caixabank remains top pick

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Morgan Stanley | We expect that the impact of the war will be reflected mainly in provisions. Now we are assuming zero growth in commissions this year vs +3% previously.

We believe that the risk of greater provisions will be offset by the upside in rates and margins. Net Interest Income will be weak in Q1. However, it will touch bottom before picking up again from Q2 onwards thanks to the fact that the movement in the Euribor will begin to be reflected.

Caixabank (CABK) remains our top pick and we maintain our Overweight (OW) stance in BBVA (BBVA).