Spain Economic Growth Forecast May Be Revised Up (Again)


The market consensus closed the gap between the position of analysts inside and outside Spain, regarding the Spanish GDP growth expectations for 2014. Expert at Bankia José Ramón Díez mentioned such breach only last week:

“It is also important to close the gap, little by little, between the opinions and forecasts of analysts from inside and outside the country. After all, the Consensus Forecast board shows that the nine Spanish institutions expect a +0.8% growth for 2014, whereas the seven international contributors forecast a +0% stagnation.”

The Spanish government will announce its macroeconomic framework for 2014 by the end of this week, although the Spanish PM advanced in a press conference that the government has raised their growth forecasts from 0.5% to 0.7%.

Mr Rajoy said that their forecasts were “yet below those of the market consensus, which expects a 1% growth.” However, The Corner Team interviewed several analysts from the leading investment houses (both Spanish and foreign ones) soon after his declarations, in order to know whether they agreed with the government estimate of 0.7% for 2014.

After the Closing Bell, a dozen experts revealed to The Corner that the market consensus forecasts +0.73% GDP growth for 2014 in Spain.

It is obvious that both percentages match, despite Mr Rajoy’s previous statement. Could it be the widely known “carry-over effect”? Will upward revisions continue? It is quite possible. As a matter of fact, three of the consulted experts point to that possibility “in the next few days.”

About the Author

The Corner
The Corner has a team of on-the-ground reporters in capital cities ranging from New York to Beijing. Their stories are edited by the teams at the Spanish magazine Consejeros (for members of companies’ boards of directors) and at the stock market news site Consenso Del Mercado (market consensus). They have worked in economics and communication for over 25 years.

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