The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) estimates that last year closed with growth of 5.3%, which represents an upward revision of 9 tenths of a percentage point; and that in 2023 it will be 1.6%, in this case one tenth of a percentage point more than the previous estimate. The main reason for the revision in 2022 comes from the incorporation of updated national accounting data – which revised growth upwards in September, October and December – and also from an improved growth forecast for the fourth quarter.
In this case, it lowers the inflation forecast for 2022 by five tenths of a percentage point, to 8.4%, due to the recent moderation in energy prices. On the other hand, the correction is in the opposite direction for this year. Thus, the AIReF raises its inflation forecast by three tenths of a percentage point to 4.2%. The reason for this is that although energy prices have performed better than expected, at the same time a greater persistence of the increase in other CPI components has been detected.
With regard to the public deficit – and despite the fact that tax collection has risen by 15.9% and has exceeded the Government’s forecast by 32,000 million, which has refused to deflate taxes – the AIReF worsens the forecast for 2022 by two tenths of a percentage point, to 4.5%, due to the latest measures adopted by the Government that have increased spending and also due to the latest budget execution data.