Spain’s GDP Will Contract By 0.4% In 3Q2022, According To AIReF

Spain's government

The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) now expects Spain’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to contract by 0.4% in 3Q2022 compared with 2Q2022, as reflected in the latest update of the real-time GDP trend forecasting model (MIPred) published by AIReF after the publication of the data on the number of workers registered with the Social Security (monthly average) for the month of August 2022. The aforementioned contraction of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter would correspond to a positive year-on-year rate in the period of 3.2%.

According to data published by the Ministry of Labour and Social Economy, the number of the unemployed registered in the offices of the public employment services (formerly nown as Inem) rose by 40,428 people in August, which represents an increase of 1.4% compared with July. In seasonally adjusted terms, registered unemployment rose in August by 3,184 persons. The number of the unemployed thus stood at 2,924,240 in August and when compared with the data for August 2021, unemployment fell by 409,675 persons, or 12.29%.

On the other hand, according to figures published by the Ministry of Social Security the average number of people affiliated to the social security system fell in the month of August by 189,963 people, to 20,151,001, which is the worst month of August for affiliation since 2019, a figure that confirms what was anticipated in July: the labour market is no longer immune to global uncertainty.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the number of Social Security affiliations increased in August by 62,135 workers, 0.31% more than in July, therefore there has been a total of 16 consecutive months of increases in employment in the labour market. In year-on-year terms, the number of new Social Security affiliations increased in August by 677,277.

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