The offer on scheduled seats for this summer in Spain will reach pre-Covid levels: good news for IAG, which could return to profits in Q2’22


Intermoney | La Asociación de Líneas Aéreas (ALA), the leading organisation in the sector in Spain with 85% of air traffic, announced its forecasts for this summer on Thursday. And the figures for the summer season fuel a moderate optimism. Although a recovery in the sector is not expected until at least 2023, the estimated scheduling for this summer season reaches figures which are very close to those of pre-pandemic times. Some 212 seats are scheduled, scarcely 0.4% less than the same period in 2019.

That said, the association chairman, Javier Gándara, showed some caution regarding these figures as they are conditional on the development of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. While the latter initially put the brakes on activity, for the time being it has not had any direct significant impact. However, it has indirectly via fuel prices.

Valuation: Positive news for IAG as Spain is its second biggest market, representing 26% of its sales in 2021. ALA’s announcement reaffirms our estimates that pre-Covid capacity levels will be recovered in the summer. We expect IAG will return to profits during Q2’22, reaching a capacity for the whole year of 85% vs 2019.