Bankinter| Recovery of margins in Buses. Progress in the 2026 Strategic Plan. Revised estimates and assessment after the 2023 results.
Analysis: We maintain our Buy recommendation. Price Obj: €41.9/share (from €36.2/share previously). We value positively: (1) The high order backlog (at record highs, €14.2bn, 3.7x sales), which ensures a large part of the fulfilment of the 2026 Business Plan; (2) The improvement in business margins, especially in Solaris (buses), thanks to a higher value-added business mix (towards zero or low emission products) and the normalisation of supply chains. Although our projections assume a slightly more progressive margin recovery, towards 6.1% in 2026 (against a 6.3% target); and (3) better-than-expected leverage, 0.9x DFN/EBITDA 2023 (versus 1.22x 2022). CAF is executing its Strategic Plan until 2026 which focuses its commercial efforts on Europe, North America and Asia Pacific and; in particular on Buses, the focus is on intercity in Europe and the entry into zero emissions in North America. With the current high order book (at record highs), the main uncertainties would be the execution of the expansion projects of the Strategic Plan or a renewed increase in margin pressure.
