Bankinter: November final CPI confirms 2.4% year-on-year preliminary (from 1.8% year-on-year previous), Underlying also confirmed 2.4% year-on-year preliminary (from 2.5% previous). On a month-on-month basis +0.2% month-on-month for the headline rate and +0.1% for the Underlying.
Analysis team’s view: The data confirm the preliminary data and also the pick-up in headline inflation in 4Q24, as expected and anticipated by the ECB, largely due to base effects from energy (electricity and fuels). It implies an average of 2.8% p.a. up to November, a benchmark for the pension review. The ECB yesterday updated its disinflation forecasts for the Eurozone, slightly downward for 2024 and 2025 in its General Rate and maintained the Underlying for both years, conveying the idea that it is moving towards its 2% medium-term target.towards its medium-term target of 2%, despite the rebound in the last quarter.
