Bankinter: House prices rise +4.5% in 3Q2023 (year-on-year). The Housing Price Index, compiled by the INE, points to a price increase of +4.5% in 3Q 2023 (year-on-year), even accelerating from +3.6% previously. In quarter-on-quarter terms +2.5% versus +2.1% previously. Second Hand Housing rises +2.2% year-on-year, while New Housing +4.1% year-on-year.
Analysis: House prices surprise positively and will probably exceed our forecast of +1% by 2023. They are supported by a strong labour market, with wage increases close to +5%. Looking ahead to 2024, there could be some correction, although it would be nominal (-2% est.) and temporary due to the high interest rate environment. Fundamentals are good and there is no bubble.
