Since 2020, the PSOE has lost in Galicia, the Basque Country, Madrid and Castilla y León, and has only won in Catalonia. The Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas predicts a clear victory for the PP on 19 June, with 35% of the votes for Moreno Bonilla (15% more than 4 years ago), compared to 25% (3% less than 4 years ago) for the new PSOE candidate, Juan Espadas.
According to this CIS survey, Vox would obtain 15% of the votes, and Ciudadanos would fall to 4%. The CIS gives the left-wing coalition “Por Andalucia” 9% of the votes, and Teresa Rodríguez, the Cádiz leader and former leader of Unidas Podemos, another 4%.
Translated into seats, this result would give the PP-A between 47 and 49 seats in the Andalusian Parliament, compared to the 26 it currently has. Meanwhile the PSOE-A would obtain between 32 and 36, compared to its current 33. For its part, Cs would go from third to sixth force in the Chamber by remaining with one or three deputies – compared to the 21 achieved in December 2018. And they would be surpassed by Vox, which would obtain 17-21 seats, when in the last regional elections it obtained twelve parliamentarians – although it remained with eleven in 2020 after the departure of the group of the deputy Luz Belinda Rodríguez – and by the coalition ‘Por Andalucía’, which would achieve 9-10 seats.
Ahead of Ciudadanos, Adelante Andalucía, the coalition now led by Teresa Rodríguez – which was the brand with which Podemos and IU contested the 2018 regional elections, winning 17 MPs – would also gain 4.7% of the vote and two MPs.
According to the results of the CIS survey on voting estimates, the PP-A could win an absolute majority in Parliament – which stands at 55 seats – with Vox, a party with which it signed an investiture agreement in the last legislature,
For its part, the PSOE would not be able to form an alternative majority to the one that could be formed by the PP with Vox, since the hypothetical sum of PSOE, Por Andalucía and Adelante Andalucía would be left with 48 seats in the best-case scenario for these parties. And not even the addition of up to three seats projected for Ciudadanos would achieve an absolute majority.
The survey also provides voting estimation data broken down by provinces, from which it can be deduced that the PP would be the most voted force in the eight Andalusian provinces, followed by the PSOE and Vox in second and third place, respectively, in all of them.