Bankinter | The unemployment rate stands at 11.36% in Q1 2025, compared to the 10.7% expected and the previous 10.61%. The number of employed workers decreases to 21.8M (down 92.5 thousand people since Q4 and up 515.4 thousand people year-on-year). The number of unemployed increases to 2.8M people (up 193.7 thousand people in the quarter and down 188.7 thousand year-on-year).
Analysis team opinion: The unemployment rate surprises negatively, with a moderation in the number of employed (down 92.5 thousand workers in the quarter) and an increase in the unemployed (193.7 thousand in the quarter, up 7.5%). In Q1 2024, the unemployment rate also rose by 0.49pp (to 12.29%) versus 0.75pp in this first quarter. Despite growth exceeding our European neighbors, the unemployment rate remains much higher than theirs, which are at historical lows of 6.1%, and our own lows of 2007 (at 7.9%). Our projections point to a moderate evolution of employment throughout the year, placing the rate at around 10.6% by the end of 2025 and 10.8% in 2026.
