Bankinter | University of Michigan consumer confidence (final figure) fell more than expected in February, to a 15-month low of 64.7 points versus 67.8 expected versus 71.1 previous. The fall occurred in both components of the index, both Current Situation (65.7 versus 68.7 preliminary versus 74.0 previous) and Expectations (64.0 versus 67.3 preliminary versus 69.3 previous).
Opinion of the Bankinter analysis team: The decline in confidence comes at a time marked by fears of US tariffs and still high interest rates. This explains the downturn on Wall Street after the data, but also for bonds because: (a) 12-month inflation expectations rise to 4.3% (in line with expectations), their highest level since November 2023 and (b) 5-year inflation expectations rise to 3.5% versus a preliminary 3.3%, their highest level since 1995, suggesting a hawkish/hardline stance by the Fed.
