Link Securities| According to the second estimate of the data, released yesterday by the Commerce Department, US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded 5.2% in 3Q2023 relative to 2Q2023 in annualised data (2.1% in 2Q2023), slightly more than the 4.9% initially estimated. The FactSet consensus of analysts expected growth of 4.9%. The increase in GDP in 3Q2023 is the largest in annualised data since that achieved in 4Q2021.
In this second estimate, non-residential investment was revised upwards to show a 1.3% increase instead of the 0.1% drop initially estimated, as the fall in equipment was smaller (-3.5% versus -3.8% in the 1st estimate) and investment in structures increased more than initially estimated (6.9% versus 1.6% in the 1st estimate). In addition, residential investment increased for the first time in almost two years and at a much faster pace than initially expected (6.2% versus 3.9% in the first estimate). In turn, private inventories added 1.4 percentage points (p.p.) to growth, up from 1.32 p.p. in the previous estimate, and government spending increased faster (5.5% versus 4.6% in the first estimate). On the other hand, consumer spending increased by 3.6%, slightly less than the 4.0% initially estimated, although it still showed the highest growth in a quarter since that reached in 4Q2021.
On a year-on-year basis, US GDP grew by 3.0%, slightly more than the 2.9% initially estimated, which was expected by the analysts’ consensus.
