Juan Pedro Marín-Arrese | You shouldn’t be too concerned about Donald Trump’s impressive electoral performance unless you rank among undocumented immigrants within the U.S. borders. Even so, despite his upbeat rhetoric, Trump proved less effective in enforcing deportation orders during his previous term than Obama—only a few thousand compared to nearly one million per year under his Democratic counterpart.
Foreign observers are often bewildered by the broad public support Trump has garnered in this election, considering his record as a convicted felon and his involvement in the mob assault on the Capitol aimed at overturning the results of the 2020 presidential election. His behaviour has often proved far from polite; at times, it has been outright rude. The liberal media’s scrutiny and relentless fact-checking have highlighted his tendency to prove economical with the truth. Although he often threatens his opponents, he appears more inclined to spend his time golfing at his Florida resort rather than seeking revenge. Just in case, counsel Jack Smith has speedily proposed the Justice Department to drop the pending indictments targeting the future president.
Kamala Harris failed to distance herself from Biden’s unpopular legacy. Moreover, she showcased a lacklustre record as vice president. Her campaign, grounded on galvanising support from gender and race issues, fell short of expectations and did little to inspire enough confidence in economic performance, immigration control, and security enforcement. At her closing rally, Harris shared the stage with influencers, starkly contrasting with Trump’s image surrounded by steel union leaders. No wonder workers in the Rust Belt supported him, transforming traditionally blue states into red ones.
It would be prudent for Trump to avoid enacting many of the pledges he made during his campaign. Raising tariffs to protect domestic industries could fuel inflation and undermine competitiveness. Adam Smith discredited the mercantilist strategy of seeking domestic welfare at the expense of others centuries ago. Later, the Great Depression vividly illustrated the self-inflicted damage protectionism exerts on the economy. Moreover, closing the door to immigration would wreak havoc on labour-intensive firms while providing few extra jobs for fellow citizens. Should it lead to wage increases beyond reasonable limits, it would further hamper the survival of many U.S. businesses.
Addressing the significant public deficit should stand as the top priority. While reducing spending proves vital, any increase in tariff revenue cannot offset substantial tax cuts. Trump should set aside that promise and instead blame the outgoing administration for draining the public coffers. The U.S. government can secure unlimited financing by placing sovereign issues in the Federal Reserve; however, the snowballing indebtedness poses a growing risk of financial instability. Failure to address this severe imbalance could lead to a global economic crisis.
On foreign policy, Trump will likely avoid engaging in open conflicts, as they are costly and lead to politically damaging U.S. casualties. He should keep his commitment to end fighting in Ukraine and impose a ceasefire coupled with the prospect of a fair settlement in the ongoing Middle East crisis. As Iran pulls the strings, making sure it no longer destabilises the region and abandons plans to become a nuclear threat to its neighbours seems essential. Only a strong message to its leaders that the U.S. will use all its might, if necessary, could deter further escalation.
His presidency would benefit if Trump can navigate these entrenched conflicts effectively. Let’s cross our fingers, hoping he might succeed.
