“The PBOC has refused to boost lending like it used to do before in order to stimulate growth. This has affected to the housing market as well as to those companies with greater leverage and that can affect growth,” says an analyst at MS.
To bet on consumption- instead or urbanisation or market liberalization- will lead to a slower growth rate (around 6% annually). Morgan Stanley cautions against that on the following grounds:
“Investment generates employment and income growth, which supports consumption. If investment stops, productivity and employment go down and income growth lags behind,” they pointed out.