China will confirm its transformation into the world’s largest economy in 2028, five years earlier than previously predicted. This is the result of the “ability” with which the Asian giant has managed the coronavirus crisis and its greater relative impact on the large Western economies, according to the latest edition of the World Economic League, produced by the Center for Economic and Business Research (CEBR).
“The skillful management of the pandemic and the negative impact on long-term growth in the Western economies implies an improvement in China’s relative economic performance,” highlight the people responsible for the study. They foresee an annual growth in Chinese GDP of 5.7% in 2021-2025, while in the following five years it will moderate to 3.9% yearly.
In this way, China will not lose its top position throughout the forecasts’ scope, which extends to 2035. Meanwhile, the US economy will remain in second place in the ranking. However, it will be threatened by the rise of India, which will close 2020 as the sixth world economy, rising to third place from 2030.
According to CEBR forecasts, by 2035 the change in the world economy balance will have been consolidated with the rise of other BRIC economies such as Indonesia: it will rise to eighth position (15th in 2020), while Brazil will be the ninth world economy (12th currently) and Russia will reach tenth position (11th now).
Amongst the large Western economies, Germany will lose its current fourth position by the end of the decade, and from 2030 onwards will be the fifth world economy. Meanwhile, the UK will fall from 2025 to sixth position, one below its current position, despite uncertainty about the impact of Brexit. France will manage to hold on to seventh place for the entire period.
Spain could end up overtaking Italy
In the case of Spain, the report considers it as one of the economies most affected by the coronavirus crisis. That said, it forecasts the country will hold on to its position until the middle of the decade, when it will fall to 15th place in the World Economic League. But by 2035 it could rise to 13th place.
However, despite this negative impact, Spain would not only maintain its position as the largest Spanish-speaking economy in the world in 2035, but would also overtake Italy. The latter would start from eighth position in 2020, but gradually lose economic weight globally. It would fall to tenth place in 2025 and thirteenth in 2030, reaching fourteenth place in 2035, just behind Spain.