Alphavalue | In a recent strategy note we already mentioned the 200 billion euros lost between 2020 and 2021 in our coverage universe (see table attached). This is undoubtedly a significant figure equivalent to 3 trillion euros of market cap, which implicitly represents a 3.5% annual dividend yield.
Our dividend estimate for 2022 is 30 billion euros higher than the figure expected for 2021 (+12%), but is still 60 billion euros lower than a year ago. Excluding the impact of the health crisis, we think that the dividends for 2022 could have reached 360 billion euros. A remarkable difference.
In terms of sectors, the table shows the opportunity cost as the best way to understand how much has been lost compared to what was expected a year ago. We highlight the banks on the negative side of the table, together with Energy, Cars and Insurance. On the other hand, the big surprise has been Semiconductors, a sector that does not stand out especially in terms of dividends.