Global growth will not move from 3.2% in 2019, 2012-2016 levels

world growth ladder

Macroeconomists at Morgan Stanley have updated their estimates and believe that global growth will remain frozen at this level for the rest of 2019.

With growth of 3.2% yoy, this returns us to the levels in which were stuck in the period 2012-2016. Apart from this, the risks remain clearly on the downside and if trade tensions continue we could end up in a recession within three quarters. Given that central bank monetary policy can only mitigate the impact of trade tensions up to a certain point, the key factor will be how these tensions develop from now on.


About the Author

The Corner
The Corner has a team of on-the-ground reporters in capital cities ranging from New York to Beijing. Their stories are edited by the teams at the Spanish magazine Consejeros (for members of companies’ boards of directors) and at the stock market news site Consenso Del Mercado (market consensus). They have worked in economics and communication for over 25 years.