Crédito y Caución (Atradius) | After two years of decline during the pandemic years, global insolvencies increased by 9% in 2022. The increase was related to the halting of Covid fiscal support packages and the lifting of temporary changes to insolvency legislation. In some markets, insolvencies have completely normalized or even exceed pre-pandemic levels.
In the majority of countries, though, we observe that insolvencies are in the process of adjusting back to pre-pandemic levels. For 2023 we predict an increase of 49% in the global level of insolvencies, as the ‘return to normal’ continues. In 2023 we are seeing rising insolvencies across all regions, with North America experiencing a relatively strong increase, while Europe is seeing milder increases.
The majority of countries in each region can expect rising insolvencies this year. In 2024, the picture is more mixed. On a global level, we predict that insolvencies will rise by 12% compared to 2023. In most markets that we observe, insolvencies are expected to have more or less normalised in 2024.
In 2023, we expect sharply rising business failures in South Korea (154%), Italy (90%), Hong Kong (83%),New Zealand (82%), the Netherlands (79%) and the United States (74%).
In 2024, we forecast relatively high insolvency increases in New Zealand (62%), South Korea (35%) and Singapore (30%).