“Markets In General Just Be Really Happy With Biden’s Lead”

US elections, Joe Biden

Esty Dwek (Natixis) | At the moment it’s really just all about fiscal stimulus and markets are relatively upbeat because they feel like it’s better if we get some sooner. But worst case we will get a lot more laterbecause we’re pricing in, or because the polls are showing an increasing lead for Biden. And we’re also seeing markets in general just be really happy with Biden’s lead because it’s looking less and less likely that you’re going to have a contested election which means that by November 4th, we probably know who the next president is going to be, and if it is this Democratic sweep, then we also know there’s going to be a lotof fiscal spending in 2021.

So, there’s justoptimism, I’d say, all around. From an international standpoint, the one thing we’re going to have to keep in mind is because the fiscal stimulus is going to come next year and not this year, the growth prospects for the US for 2021 are higher than they are in Europe, especially given the virus situation. So, you’re going to have a bit of a sort of disconnect between the two, and we’re going to have to see how that plays out in markets.