By Benjamin Cole at Marcus Nunes’ Historinhas | Recently Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser opined that even periods of mild deflation could be welcome in the United States, and that Fed should have but a lone goal, and ideally that is zero inflation.
NEW YORK | By JPMorgan analysts | The Spanish economy has been showing clear signs of recovery since the summer, although from very low levels and we see no time for complacency for Rajoy’s government, a risk investors are already highlighting. There are some pending structural reforms in the fiscal, legal and pension sectors, while, in the banking sector, we would encourage a final cleanup to prevent a Japanese-style downturn, regarding which the October deflation data may be a warning. In our view, a more stable legal environment is also necessary for investors in regulated sectors, where banks and utilities are likely to be most affected.
MADRID | By JP Marin Arrese | Draghi is becoming a popular target for the German press. He presented himself as a tough defender of the established order in monetary policy when canvassing for the top job in the European central bank. But as soon as he secured his coveted goal, he shifted away from orthodoxy.
MADRID | By Miguel Navascués | There is a harsh disagreement in the euro zone: when Mario Draghi tries to do something, he finds the opposition of Germany and its allies. It seems obvious that Europe won’t get out of the hole with such travel companions.
MADRID | By Fernando G. Urbaneja | In a surprising move, the European Central Bank cut interest rates on Thursday. This is just a sign of the multiple fears shared by the institution and Mr Draghi: the ghost of deflation, the need for credit or the European prices and asset inflation. But both Mr Draghi and the ECB’s credibility have been boosted lately. What are they scared of then?
[Video by FT: “Is Europe getting deflated?”]
MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | Germany prevents the monetary expansion in the country (and within the rest of the euro zone) by controlling the ECB. If the central bank had the minimal amount of money necessary for the area, all of it would go to Germans, who would spend more, thus accelerating the recovery of their European partners.
LONDON | By Barclays analysts | In a surprise move, the ECB cut the refi rate by 25bp to 0.25% and left the deposit rate unchanged at zero. It also extended its fixed-rate, full-allotment facility to all refinancing operations by one year, at least until mid 2015. The ECB clearly signalled that it is concerned about persistently low inflation, even if deflation risks are contained. We will only know more about how long the ECB thinks low inflation will last next month when it publishes its macroeconomic forecasts. We see euro area inflation in 2014 dropping to 1.0% from the forecast 1.4% this year.
THE CORNER TEAM | Put the champagne in the freezer. Against most expectations, the ECB lowered its main refinancing rate to 0.25 percent on Thursday in order to encourage the eurozone’s recovery. Mario Draghi took this measure responding to a slump in inflation that has sparked fears the economy could stall, years after financial crisis broke and years after most other central banks did the same thing.
LONDON | By Barclays analysts | Disinflationary pressures and significant monetary tightening in the euro area suggest ECB action sooner rather than later. In our view, the probability of an easing at the ECB’s December meeting has increased and will likely be priced-in through a lower EUR heading into the meeting and beyond.
MADRID | By J. Luis Martín via TRUMAN | In the winter of 2009, lawyer, investment banker, and advisor on capital markets to the Director of National Intelligence and the Office of the Secretary of Defense, James Rickards took part in a secret war game sponsored by the Pentagon at the Applied Physics Laboratory (APL). The game’s objective was to simulate and explore the potential outcomes and effects of a global financial war. Two years later, Rickards published what would become a national bestseller, Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis. TRUMAN spoke to him after he just finished writing its sequel, The Death of Money, The Coming Collapse of the International Monetary System, due out in bookstores in April 2014.