According to the director of the Economics and Strategy Department at Cortal Consors Estefanía Ponte, this cautiously optimistic prevision is “very appropriate.”
“Obviously, the forecasts include the international context, because the Eurozone is one of our major trading partners. Thus, if its growth deteriorates, then Spanish exports will suffer,” she adds.
The latest PMI manufacturing figures in the Eurozone (with Germany and France in contraction territory), and Mr Draghi’s message about the “deadlock” in Q2, meant that the economy may have been adversely impacted.
“The fact that the entire Eurozone has weakened is not good news for Spain. But an upward revision is not a substantial change, because the latest governmental revision in April was 1.2%. On the other hand, Mr Draghi’s message is not new either, because it’s based on the information published by Eurostat in August,” strategist at Ahorro Corporación José María Valle explains.
Be that as it may, the fact that the government has revised its forecast upwards seems only natural, especially if we take into account that Spain has performed much better than the rest of the European countries during the second quarter of 2014.
However, market watchers are sceptical of any notion that Spain may become a new engine for European growth. “It is logical that the media say that in their articles, and it is a fact that Spain has done its homework… but there is a long way before the country becomes the Eurozone’s engine. Today, Germany and France remain Europe’s engines,” Mr Valle points.