bond markets


Market sees recession: 2/10 year US bond curve inverted by more than one percentage point for first time in 40 years

Ana Racionero (Intermoney) | A Fed rate hike to 6%, a level whose risks have long been hedged in the options market, is starting to look less and less far-fetched. Powell’s appearance before the Senate yesterday unleashed a tsunami that sent bonds on both sides of the Atlantic tumbling, causing traders to recalibrate rate levels. The swap market raised the interest rate for the Fed’s September meeting to 5.60% and,…

Mario Draghi ECB presiden 012

ECB reaching out for banks

Axel Botte (Ostrum AM) | Equity markets resumed rising last week. European indices gained as much as 2.5%. The rebound in bank stocks appears traceable to Mario Draghi’s comments hinting at possible changes to the deposit facility rate scheme. Equity markets were also upbeat in Asia and in North America.

rates curve usa

The negative yield curve and its consequences

Miguel Navascués | Recently, in the US, long term interest rates have fallen below short term rates. This has a more concrete significance: the economy is getting weaker and could enter recession. Something unusual has happened which we must explain.


Markets are repricing risks and feel neglected by the Fed.

DWS: “Markets are repricing risks and feel neglected by the Fed. This could create some downward momentum”

DWS | How should a hedge fund have positioned itself if it had known the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) decisions and press release a day ahead of the market? Until lunchtime on Wednesday noon its staff might have reasonably concluded that the material contained preciously little actionable information. On paper, it would have all looked exactly as expected, leaving limited scope for any meaningful market reaction. This is not, of course, how things actually turned out.


lifebuoy water

Unintended consequences of saving the world from the financial crisis

Neil Dwane (Allianz) | The response of central banks to the financial crisis 10 years ago may have saved the world from a devastating depression, but it also created a host of unforeseen effects – from more indebtedness to more economic inequality. Looking back at what we got right – and what went wrong – what lessons can we take away for the future?


The Interconnection Of Markets

The markets are connected via expectations. If there is a price change in one market, then this information is transmitted to other markets pricing in easily assimilated expectations within a similar time horizon. All consumer durables markets have an eye on the future. In other words, they have a financial component although the product which is trading on the market has an industrial use. For example, the oil and bond markets.

Bond markets

Bond markets riskier than stocks

The Corner | June 8, 2015 | After all, equities are supported by the cycle and the upturn in business results. On the other hand, bond markets are negatively affected by the improvement of the economic outlook and a scenario where deflation is not considered anymore.


Bonds rise amid closer Greek deal

MADRID | June 3, 2015 | By Francisco López | Markets are still awaiting a possible agreement between Greece and its creditors. Stock markets are shivering one day, then the next one it’s the bonds’ turn to suffer, depending on the rumour of the day.

An official ECB's tweet

QE effects: “Bond prices will go up, then money will fly towards equities”

The Corner | March 9, 2015 | Peripheral bonds hit minimum lows on Monday as the ECB and the 19 national central banks started the much-awaited sovereign puchases on Monday. Short-term eurozone interest rates are expected to move deeper into negative territory as the QE unfolds. “This programme will mean a safety net for the eurozone equities and bond markets. However, we might see some corrections,” experts at Link Securities commented. Liquidity injected in the system “will first push bond prices up, but almost simultaneously will move towards equities,” Bankinter analysts noted.