Ana Racionero (Intermoney) | A Fed rate hike to 6%, a level whose risks have long been hedged in the options market, is starting to look less and less far-fetched. Powell’s appearance before the Senate yesterday unleashed a tsunami that sent bonds on both sides of the Atlantic tumbling, causing traders to recalibrate rate levels. The swap market raised the interest rate for the Fed’s September meeting to 5.60% and,…
Axel Botte (Ostrum AM) | Equity markets resumed rising last week. European indices gained as much as 2.5%. The rebound in bank stocks appears traceable to Mario Draghi’s comments hinting at possible changes to the deposit facility rate scheme. Equity markets were also upbeat in Asia and in North America.
Miguel Navascués | Recently, in the US, long term interest rates have fallen below short term rates. This has a more concrete significance: the economy is getting weaker and could enter recession. Something unusual has happened which we must explain.
DWS | How should a hedge fund have positioned itself if it had known the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) decisions and press release a day ahead of the market? Until lunchtime on Wednesday noon its staff might have reasonably concluded that the material contained preciously little actionable information. On paper, it would have all looked exactly as expected, leaving limited scope for any meaningful market reaction. This is not, of course, how things actually turned out.
Neil Dwane (Allianz) | The response of central banks to the financial crisis 10 years ago may have saved the world from a devastating depression, but it also created a host of unforeseen effects – from more indebtedness to more economic inequality. Looking back at what we got right – and what went wrong – what lessons can we take away for the future?
Pablo García Gómez (Carax Alphavalue) |Sector earnings from Europe for the second half of 2017 have been overall solid, with some positive surprises from “heavy cyclicals” like oil and metals and mining.
The markets are connected via expectations. If there is a price change in one market, then this information is transmitted to other markets pricing in easily assimilated expectations within a similar time horizon. All consumer durables markets have an eye on the future. In other words, they have a financial component although the product which is trading on the market has an industrial use. For example, the oil and bond markets.
The Corner | June 8, 2015 | After all, equities are supported by the cycle and the upturn in business results. On the other hand, bond markets are negatively affected by the improvement of the economic outlook and a scenario where deflation is not considered anymore.
MADRID | June 3, 2015 | By Francisco López | Markets are still awaiting a possible agreement between Greece and its creditors. Stock markets are shivering one day, then the next one it’s the bonds’ turn to suffer, depending on the rumour of the day.
The Corner | March 9, 2015 | Peripheral bonds hit minimum lows on Monday as the ECB and the 19 national central banks started the much-awaited sovereign puchases on Monday. Short-term eurozone interest rates are expected to move deeper into negative territory as the QE unfolds. “This programme will mean a safety net for the eurozone equities and bond markets. However, we might see some corrections,” experts at Link Securities commented. Liquidity injected in the system “will first push bond prices up, but almost simultaneously will move towards equities,” Bankinter analysts noted.