Joan Tapia (Barcelona) | We don’t really know where we stand with regard to this crisis, but it’s clear what we should do. The EU must act decisively to avoid an economic disaster that would affect all its members. Only God knows what will come next.
coronavirus impact GDP
Nitesh Shah, (Director, Research, WisdomTree) | “Nassim Taleb in his book on uncertainty defined “Black Swans”— extremely unpredictable events that have massive impacts on human society. One of the defining elements of Black Swans is that models can explain their existence after the fact. In September 2019 a report compiled at the request of the United Nations secretary-general said “If it is true to say ‘what’s past is prologue’, then there is a very real threat of a rapidly moving, highly lethal pandemic of a respiratory pathogen killing 50 to 80 million people and wiping out nearly 5% of the world’s economy.
Alphavalue | The magnitude of the downward revisions to the sectors should not come as a big surprise. In a very negative case (“worst case scenario”), the luxury sector could lose 34% and may come as an unpleasant surprise. The Stoxx600 would drop by 15% if fundamentals are threatened again. Although they were not a problem 10 days ago, it seems that sensitivity has increased now.
Most economists were probably expecting a fairly easy ride at the beginning of 2020. However, unforeseen exogenous events such as the outbreak of China coronavirus are standing in the way, generating a high level of uncertainty. In the opinion of Gilles Moëc , Chief Economist at AXA IM, that now ” economic policy could be on autopilot is not very consensual”.