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World economy 28th June 2014

Bankinter expects 3Q vertigo in sound cycle

MADRID | Bankinter Analysis | 3Q Perspectives. Economic cycle speeds up and, mostly, gains soundness and reliability. Global growth will consolidate in 2014/2015 by +3%/+4% with positive news for developed countries and less favorable surprises in emerging markets. Japan and India are the exception to this rule. Spain will also amaze and main economic risk will lie in regional regional integrity issues whose aftermath may be undervalued, regardless the final scenario.

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In Europe 26th June 2014

Falling debt against increasing GDP

MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | What good does it do a falling debt if nominal GDP is increasing? According to the Real World Economy in Greece, the households’ debt went as shown in the chart. That is, the nominal value of the existing debt has dropped, but it has increased in relation to the income or the GDP with which it is paid. And this, ladies and gentlemen, is the best expression of the Debt Deflation concept.

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Markets 25th June 2014

European stock markets, harmed by US sluggish GDP

MADRID | By Francisco López | The first world power is doing worse than expected. USA’s GDP decreased in 1Q by 2.9% year on year, nearly three times the 1% foreseen just a month ago and far from 1.8% that Wall Street expected. European stock markets, unlike the American, reacted immediately with heavy losses. Spanish Ibex 35 leaded the way losing 1.25 and finished below 11,000 points.

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In Europe 25th June 2014

European recovery on track, but moderate and uneven

ZURICH | By UBS analysts | The economic recovery in the Eurozone remains on track, but Q1 GDP data have once again shown the slow pace of growth and wide discrepancies that exist between individual economies. We cut our 2014 Eurozone growth forecast to 1.0% (from 1.1%) and continue to project 1.5% growth for 2015. Nominal GDP growth is expected to pick up to 1.7% this year and 2.7% in 2015, but nonetheless, it remains much slower than would be desirable to accelerate debt deleveraging

US recovery

Markets 21st June 2014

What the market is really telling about the US recovery

LONDON| By Stephane Deo and Ramin Nakisa at UBS | At the time of writing, the Treasury curve is telling the potential US GDP growth rate is very low – in the neighbourhood of 1%. The 30-year real yield is at 1.09% (but dipped below 1% recently), the 10-year real yield is at a frightening 0.36%, and the 5-year-in-5-year yield, a good proxy of where the market thinks long-term growth will settle, is at 1.05% (but also dipped below 1% recently).Taking those numbers at face value, we would have to conclude that the current recovery is doomed, and that growth will level off soon at a very disappointing level.

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In Europe 30th May 2014

Spanish GDP: The crystal clear lie

MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | Spanish 1Q GDP was released on Friday. Data were shameful and let me explain you why: in order to reduce the public deficit, the government transfered 2013 4Q public spending to 2014 1Q. So these last numbers are those they had tried to hide under the carpet. In the graph above, the blue and line represent private and public consumption, respectively.

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In Europe 13th May 2014

Spanish recovery glass only half-full

BARCELONA | Joan Tapia| That the Spanish economy grew by 0.4% quarterly in the 1Q14, and by 0.6% yearly is a real green shoot. After several years of recession, GDP is to grow moderately, around 1% in year 2014. However, employment continued falling by 184,000 people, at an annual pace of 0.5%. A slap in the face for those who told the recovery was more intense than expected.

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Spanish economy 25th April 2014

Spain reaches 0.4% GDP 1Q growth –the fastest rate in 6 years

MADRID | By Julia Pastor | Spain grows slowly but at a firm pace. Bank of Spain estimates that the country’s GDP increased by 0.4% in the first three months of present year against previous quarter when it rose 0.2%. This also means that year-on- year rate climbs by 0.5% reaching positive territory for the first time after nine consecutive quarters falling. After a painful recession, the government was euphoric to announce the biggest leap forward in six years.

 

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Markets 15th April 2014

Market chatter: down the road to a banking union and much more

MADRID | By Jaime Santisteban | In a crucial day for the long-awaited banking union in Europe, market makers also chattered about many other issues, like the Bank of Spain -which has denied it plans to subject Spanish lenders to stress tests this month- achieving less tough criteria for Spanish banks in the upcoming EU stress tests.