Mathias Pleissner (Scope) | House prices in Europe may have peaked during the pandemic. The 10.6% price increase in the 12 months to the third quarter of 2021 may have been the final sprint. The last time prices grew by double digits was in 2017, a year before they plunged 15%.House prices continued to be driven by ultra-low interest rates, a lack of investment opportunities, historically high household savings levels…
According to the consultancy firm Knight Frank, which in its Global House Price Index has analysed the evolution of prices in 55 countries from 1Q20 to last spring 2021, in the USA, New Zealand, Canada, Australia, Luxembourg and Sweden housing has risen by more than +15%, above the average (+9.2%). Turkey leads the ranking with an increase of +29%. Spain is the market with the biggest fall in the global ranking, with a decrease of 0.9%. India is the other lagging country in the list, with a 0.5% decline.
COVID-19 will result in a slowdown in housing transactions of -35% – up to 326.000 transactions in 2020, returning to minimal levels (2012 to 2014). Home buying decisions will be postponed by 6-12 months, and some of the demand will disappear for longer, producing a temporary imbalance between supply and demand.
Housing prices in the Eurozone rose 4.1% in the fourth quarter of 2016 from a year earlier, the highest interannual increase since the third quarter of 2007, according to Eurostat data. In Spain, the average rise in prices remained at 4.4%.
MADRID | The Corner | Historically, German housing prices have remained flat, but since 2011 they have increased by 30% (a low figure when compared with +150% growth of the last 15 years in UK, France and Spain). Morgan Stanley analysts already see signs of recovery in the German residential sector, so the stocks exposed to it may be attractive. Moreover, housing prices in the UK have fallen significantly more than expected: 40% in August from 48% in July, instead of the 47% expected fall. It’s the lowest level of the past 12 months. According to Bankinter, this is a good sign “because it dissipates the fear of a possible housing bubble and reduces the BoE arguments to raise its main interest rate in advance.”
MADRID | Ana Fuentes | The first rise in Spain’s property prices since 2008 made big headlines on Monday. The government was proud to feed the press with some positive figures in order to illustrate its new recovery rethoric: 2Q housing prices increased by 0.8% on the year, compared with a 1.6% drop in annual terms in 1Q. But prices are going up… only for the few real estate actually being sold. What about the 600,000 properties in stock that banks are desperate to get rid of?
MADRID | By The Corner | A few years ago, owning a house was the dream of many. However, today this dream was turned into a nightmare for more than almost 600.000 borrowers in Spain. Thousands of homeowners across Spain are trapped in underwater mortgages more expensive than their houses.
By Julia Pastor | Given the changing global economy and its prospects for the coming months, all eyes are on China, where policies to curb real estate prices are beginning to take effect. According to official data from the national statistics office, that JP Morgan in Spain includes in its Friday report, in November, new housing prices in China fell by -0.17% MoM (although they are still at +2.3% YoY)…