Portugal economy

European economy 4th March 2024

New signs Portuguese economy is holding up better than expected thanks to labour market and fall in CPI

Bankinter: Good data battery for the Portuguese economy. (i) CPI (Feb): +2.1% year-on-year against +2.3% previously; Underlying: +2.2% versus +2.4% previously. (ii) Unemployment rate (Jan): 6.5% compared to 6.6% previously. (iii) Final GDP (4Q 2023): +2.2% year-on-year against +2.2% preliminary and +1.9% in Q3; In the quarter: +0.8% quarter-on-quarter versus +0.8% preliminary and -0.2% in Q3. Analysis: New signs of an economy that is holding up better than expected, supported…

In Europe 12th September 2023

S&P maintains Portuguese debt rating and revises outlook upwards

Bankinter: S&P maintains Portugal’s debt rating and revises the outlook upward. The rating is BBB+ (Positive). Assessment: After the positive review of the rating in September 2023, the US agency revises upwards the outlook for Portugal’s debt. The report highlights two key factors: (1) Expected growth for the Portuguese economy higher than that of neighbouring countries (+2% average between 2024/2026); and (2) positive impact of budgetary policies on public debt,…

European economy 28th December 2022

Portugal, mixed signals at the end to the year

Caixabank Research | The strength of economic activity in Q3 is confirmed, but there are growing signs of a slowdown. It has been confirmed that in Q3 2022 GDP grew by 4.9%, with positive contributions from both domestic and foreign demand of2.9 and 2.0 pps, respectively. In the short term, we expect to see a slowdown in economic activity, especially over the winter months, due to the impact of the…

European economy 27th May 2022

Portugal: In Q1 2022, GDP Exceeded Its Pre-COVID Level By 1.2%

Caixabank Research | Surprisingly, GDP grew by 2.6% quarter-on-quarter and by 11.9% year-on-year thanks to the strength of private consumption and the recovery in tourism. This result suggests that our current forecast for GDP growth for the year as a whole (4.2%) may prove to be too conservative. However, given the risk of a deterioration due to the impact of the conflict in Ukraine and the cooling of demand from…

In Europe 9th October 2019

Portugal: PS election victory promises continued fiscal consolidation though pace may slow

Alvise Lennkh (Scope Ratings) | Portugal is set to maintain a recent record of political stability and fiscal prudence after the ruling Socialist Party’s strong electoral showing even though a new coalition or minority government may have to make concessions to left-wing allies.

In Europe 17th October 2013

Portugal: Potential fiscal slippage this year likely to set the bar higher for next

LONDON | By BARCLAYS | The Portuguese government presented yesterday the draft Budget Law for 2014. Fiscal measures to be deployed amount to EUR3.9bn (2.4% of GDP), about 0.4% of GDP above the EUR3.3bn announced in May when the cabinet approved additional austerity measures to meet revised fiscal targets for this year and next (EUR1.4bn in 2013 and EUR3.3bn in 2014).