Bankinter: Good data battery for the Portuguese economy. (i) CPI (Feb): +2.1% year-on-year against +2.3% previously; Underlying: +2.2% versus +2.4% previously. (ii) Unemployment rate (Jan): 6.5% compared to 6.6% previously. (iii) Final GDP (4Q 2023): +2.2% year-on-year against +2.2% preliminary and +1.9% in Q3; In the quarter: +0.8% quarter-on-quarter versus +0.8% preliminary and -0.2% in Q3.
Analysis: New signs of an economy that is holding up better than expected, supported by the labour market, while inflation is close to 2% year-on-year. It is returning to the slowdown trend, after the strong rebound in January. Of note is the moderation of food prices (0.8% month-on-month versus +3.1% before). On the growth side, final GDP confirms strength. Portugal closes 2023 with an average GDP growth of +2.3%. This figure is well above the European record. It is supported by resilient employment, which is reflected in the contribution of Private Consumption in the year (+1.6% year-on-year in 2023).
