Spain

Spanish economy 27th June 2014

Home mortgages average in Spain rises by 6.2% to €100,394

MADRID | The Corner | Spanish mortgage business continued down the road and registered 13.4% less than last year in April’s property records. According to the National Statistical Institute (INE), the loaned capital for housing reached €1.5 billion, which is 8% less than the 2013 figure. Thus, the average amount of mortgages on dwellings in Spain is €100,394, i.e. +6.2% more than the previous year. The boards of technical architects awarded 11,680 building licences for new houses in the first four months of the year (4M2014), 9% less year-over-year. This construction visa remain far away from September 2006 maximum where they were beyond 255,000 in four months.

Spanish economy 25th June 2014

Spain produces more than 1m cars, aims +2m

MADRID | The Corner | The production of vehicles in Spain exceeded one million units in 2014, after the 7% growth recorded in May, according to the Spanish Association of Car and Lorry Manufacturers (ANFAC). Thus, during that month, the level of manufacturing reached 232,762 units and the total annualized was 1,065,879 vehicles. During the first five months of the year, the production of vehicles in Spain grew by 11%. ANFAC estimates that the recording of production will reach 2.4 million by the end of 2014.

Spanish economy 24th June 2014

In Spain, local tourism finally competes with foreign one

MADRID | The Corner | Spanish national tourism starts to reactivate: the number of travellers residing in Spain grew at the same rate than the number of residents abroad. The recovery in tourist expenditure of the Spanish households suggests that the private consumption may grow in the 2Q14 –although probably at a slower pace than in the previous quarters (+0.4%). The evolution of the heavy traffic in Spain’s toll motorways also points at a recovery in the domestic demand, which is a necessary component to compensate for the loss of pulse of the external sector and allow a new quarterly advance in the 2Q14 activity (+0.4%).

In Europe 22nd June 2014

The fair value for Italian and Spanish spreads

LONDON | Cagdas Aksy at Barclays | A model framework, which takes into account economic/fiscal fundamentals and risk aversion factors, indicates a fair value level of about 200bp for 10y Italy and Spain vs Germany. The high debt problem for most peripheral countries is something that will take many years to reverse and the ECB’s commitment through OMT and potential QE can contain these concerns to a large extent, as long as it maintains its credibility. Under this more optimistic scenario, fair value moves down to 90-100bp. After 350-400bp of tightening over the past two years, 10y core periphery spreads are 30-40bp away from stretched levels.

World economy 19th June 2014

Labour market as a guide to the monetary policy

MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | Experts at Afi made an analysis of the US’ labour market to forecast a possible turn in the economic policy. The answer is that such market is yet far from standardization. We can see three different moments according to the standard deviation in the chart above.

In Europe 19th June 2014

Amid a deep restructuring process, Spain gets new King

MADRID | By Juan Ballesta | Spain’s new King Felipe VI took the throne on Wednesday night, declaring his commitment to carrying out the transformations needed. The once severely crisis-battered country is finally seeing the light at the end of the tunnel, seeing his international financing costs going down and growth rate timidly increasing but still fighting with a huge unemployment rate and deficit.

Spanish economy 14th June 2014

Spanish renewables’claims pile up

MADRID | By Carlos Díaz Güell | Spain has become one of the countries facing more arbitration claims from investors due to the bonus cuts to renewable energy, only behind Venezuela, Argentina and Egypt. And yet the government feels quite calm about it, according to official sources. The last one to sue has been British fund InfraRed Capital Partners. It also litigates for the bonus cut to renewable energy companies,claiming that Spain hasn’t respected legal safety of investors, violating the Energy Charter and expropiating them of their rights.

Spanish economy 14th June 2014

Morgan Stanley: “Is already Spain the new Germany?”

MADRID | By The Corner | Spain’s public debt grew 7.12 percent in 1Q14 to 989.9 billion euros, which is 96.8 percent of its GDP. The government’s debt went up 8.4 percent from the first three months of 2013 to 864 billion euros, accounting for by far the largest share of the total, according to Bank of Spain figures published Friday. Morgan Stanley analysts emphasize the changes of macroeconomic prospects and the increase of forecasts in peripheral countries. From its analytics department, growth levels for Spain, Portugal and Ireland were raised on Monday.

In Europe 12th June 2014

Without drugs and paid sex, Spanish economy also gets better marks

MADRID | By Francisco López | The Spanish economy is finally growing and creating more jobs than expected, according to leading analysts. Savings Bank Foundation Funcas upgraded its GDP forecast for 2014, from 1.2% to 1.4%. Afi and Asempleo released the report “Labor market advance” with encouraging insights: employment is likely to rise at 1.3% y-o-y pace in August. Total active population will be 17.46 million by then, 220.000 more than the prior year.

In Europe 12th June 2014

Why are UK home prices rising? Check the sector’s lack of capacity

MADRID | By Julia Pastor | The evolution of the UK’s real estate market is one of the major risks assessed by the BoE in recent months. In fact, the demand has gained great traction since 2013, backed by better credit lending conditions, the increase of confidence and the oficial program Help to Buy.

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