COMMENTS ON ASIA-PACIFIC By Ray Kwong | Depending on who you talk to, China became the world’s biggest trader in goods for the first time last year, edging out the U.S. estimated 2013 total by about US$250 billion.
BEIJING | By Andy Xie via Caixin | The world has depended on Chinese and American stimulus for years, and one implication of their tightening is a slowing global economy in 2014
MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | Monetary policy has worked in the countries which have implemented it without feeling ashamed. The US, UK, Japan or even Switzerland have reactivated their economies and diminished wealth imbalances, at least in comparison with the euro zone. However it is also truth that QE efficiency has performed poorly.
SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes | The Fed has never been comfortable with QE3; Many thought that QE ineffective; Bernanke felt compelled to clear the path for Yellen… But it has boosted “Forward Guidance” to make up (or more than make up) for the “taper”.
SAO PAOLO | By Benjamin Cole at Marcus Nunes’ Historinhas | Slated to be No. 2 at the Fed is Stanley Fischer, who espouses adjustable inflation-targeting more than the locally preferred shooting for steady increases in nominal GDP (Market Monetarism), who knows?—it may amount to the same thing in practice.
NEW YORK | By Ana Fuentes | As the Fed begins its last meeting of the year, the question is making big headlines and debates in the U.S. this week: Will the central bank start to wind down its $85 billion a month in asset purchases before or after March? The majority of economists were not expecting the Federal Reserve to leave QE before March. But the good data coming from China, the U.S. and Europe might be a game changer. [Video: CMC Markets]
MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | This week is tapering week, and we will see the Fed’s first step towards a reduction of the quantitative easing. There is consensus about what the economic data show: every single indicator (except inflation) are more and more vigorous.
WASHINGTON | By Pablo Pardo | In 2012, 70 companies drilled 134 deepwater wells in the US side of the Gulf of Mexico. On the Mexican side, only one company drilled 6 wells: Pemex. The disparity is one of the reasons explaining why Mexico’s oil production has fallen from 3.5 million bpd in 2005 to 2.5 now. According to the US Geological Survey, the Mexican part of the Gulf of Mexico is, after the Arctic, the largest unexplored oil region in the world.
LONDON | By Barry Knapp at Barclays | Tuesday night’s two-year budget agreement between the heads of the House and Senate Budget Committees, Paul Ryan and Patty Murray, looks to be the culmination of a difficult process that has succeeded in stabilizing the US federal government fiscal position for the investable horizon. We have maintained that, since 2010, public policy uncertainty – stemming in part from government spending reaching a post-WWII high, and the associated budget deficit –has helped weaken business confidence and investment.
WASHINGTON | By Pablo Pardo | For all the talk about the jobless recovery, Barack Obama has, in less than 5 years, created three times more jobs than George W. Bush did in eight years. Under the current president’s tenure, 3,140,000 jobs have been added to the US economy. It is not a bad record of achievement, at least taking into account that, in January 2009—when Obama moved to the White House–, the United States destroyed 600,000 jobs, its worst number in 34 years. Talk about legacies.