MADRID | Francisco López | The oil collapse, depreciation of the euro, low interest rates and the reduction of personal income tax are “temporary factors” that will allow the Spanish economy to grow faster than expected, according most analysts. Funcas forecasts that Spanish GDP will grow by 2.4% in 2015, 0.2 higher than their previous estimates.
Articles by Francisco López
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MADRID | By Francisco López | Spain is not an oasis inside the Eurozone. The 18 main private research services believe that the slowdown in the European economy is already taking its toll on Spain. Besides, they forecast that Spanish GDP will grow slower than expected in the last quarter of 2014 (0.4%) versus 0.5% of the third quarter or 0.6% of the second quarter.
MADRID | By Francisco López | The collapse in the price of raw materials in the last number of weeks is good news for consumers, but very bad news in macroeconomic terms because of the heightened risk of deflation in the eurozone. Oil continues to plummet and a barrel of Brent is now priced at $82, 30%, lower than its June level and is currently trading at a four year low.
MADRID | By Francisco López | The Spanish banks performed well in the latest stress tests. All in all, they achieved acceptable results for the third quarter of 2014. The problem, say the experts, could arise in the months ahead: the European Commission has drastically reduced its forecasts for the eurozone’s main economies,and as everybody knows, growth is essential for banking activity.
MADRID | By Francisco López | The latest movements within currency markets function as a gauge of the economic momentum in both Europe and the US. The decline of the Euro against the Dollar has increased in the last few days due to poor macroeconomic data in the eurozone, which is in sharp contrast with the vigour shown by the US (who showed growth of 3.5% in the third quarter of 2014).
MADRID | By Francisco López | Market watchers have something in common with journalists: they prefer criticism rather than compliments –as can be seen from the analysis of the European Central Bank’s stress tests. Criticism is growing, even though markets had already envisaged the results and neither the institution nor Mario Draghi is willing to defend the banking examination.
MADRID | By Francisco López | The strength of the dollar –which is in maximum levels and has appreciated by almost 11% against the euro since January 2014, has started to cast doubt among market watchers. Some experts consider that such strong appreciation does not correspond to Janet Yellen’s cautious decisions or to the low inflation expectations at a global level, which leaves room to central banks to maintain loose monetary policies.
MADRID | By Francisco López | Economic confidence dropped again in September to mid-2009 levels highlighting a worsening of the economic malaise in the Eurozone (EZ). The PMI Index fell 1.1 points to 85 points, well below the long term average (100points).
MADRID | By Francisco López | Up to this point, investors had scarcely listened to economists’ warnings about world economic stagnation, but in the last number of days the situation has changed as commodities’ prices dropped, with debt and equity markets beginning to exert some pressure.
MADRID | By Francisco López | Spanish banks face into the new era of banking union with their homework successfully completed, both in terms of adjustments and efficiency in the stress tests. Their balance sheets are healthy, although now a new challenge awaits: how to improve profitability in an adverse economic cycle, with rates close to 0% and with credit lending remaining worryingly low.