Articles by Marcus Nunes

About the Author

Marcus Nunes
João Marcus Marinho Nunes is a partner of Phynance Estratégias Quantitativas e Investimentos and a professor of Economics at Fundação Getúlio Vargas in São Paulo, Brazil. He also blogs here: http://thefaintofheart.wordpress.com/

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The Fed will almost certainly fail the next QE

SAO PAULO | By Benjamin Cole via Marcus Nunes’s Historinhas | The results are in, and it appears the Fed’s use of QE—faltering, dithering, at times mindlessly circumscribed in advance—was moderately successful in helping the U.S. climb out of recession. Europe is still mired in econo-gloom, courtesy of the ECB’s monetary noose around its neck. Japan may only now be fighting its way out of perma-gloom by way of aggressive QE. The U.S., in contrast, has posted slow growth since the end of the 2008-09 “great recession”.






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Fed, beware of the inflation!

SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes via Historinhas | In The Risks to the Inflation Outlook SF Fed researcher Vasco Cúrdia writes: the median inflation forecast is not expected to return to the FOMC target of 2% until after the end of 2016. The uptick in inflation in the first half of 2014 could lead one to believe inflation is finally on the path back toward its target. However, inflation has shown similar patterns several times before and each time the uptick has never lasted very long. According to this model, we should not see inflation begin to recover more firmly until around the end of 2015.


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Deflation: John Cochrane defiantly takes on economic history

SAO PAULO | By Benjamin Cole via Marcus Nunes‘ Historinhas | As I predicted, the right-wing has gone past its fixation on absolutely dead prices as an economic cure-all and moral imperative, to the even-better nirvana of…deflation. I wish I was making this up. But comes now University of Chicago scholar John Cochrane, path-breaking with stalwart allies such a FOMC member Charles Plosser, that deflation is an economic elixir, not a sign of stagnation. Cochrane authored a recent The Wall Street Journal op-ed genuflecting to southerly price drifts. I just don’t get it.


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Eurozone crisis: “Everybody´s talking” (except about money)

SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes via Historinhas | In “What caused the great recession in the Eurozone? What could have avoided it?” Philippe Martin and Thomas Philippon begin thus: There is a wide disagreement about the nature and cause of the Eurozone crisis. Some see it as driven by fiscal indiscipline, some emphasise excessive private leverage, while others focus on external imbalances, sudden stops, or competitiveness divergence due to fixed exchange rates, as the following quotes illustrate.


It was the IMF’s fault!

SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes via HistorinhasIt’s in the nature of the” widely held” IMF to have an upward bias in its forecasts, just as it is very hard for the CEO of a widely held group to go to the shareholders meeting to present dire forecasts.